As the vacation season approaches, cases of Covid are once more on the rise, particularly in Australia. In Victoria And Tasmania.
It is now Fourth year running With a summer surge of COVID, and one other 12 months with a couple of six-month gap between waves.
Will we see a wave every six months from now?
And what can we expect from COVID this Christmas?
Cases are increasing.
At the national level, we're seeing More hints Increasing COVID infections, resembling a rise within the variety of reported cases and the share of PCR tests that come back positive. We are also more. Diffusion in aged care.
But the extent to which it is a wave varies markedly across nations.
For example, there are notified cases in Victoria. Almost as high now. As throughout the peak of winter.
This is one such story. In Tasmaniawhere late November reported cases were as high as its winter peak.
However in Western Australia, notified cases, hospitalizations and detection of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) appear only in wastewater. Small increments so far.
New South Wales And Queensland Since the start of October, a slow increase in COVID indicators has been observed, with similar behavior. South Australia And Australian Capital Territory. We shouldn't have clear data for the northern regions.
So in summary, all jurisdictions for which we have now data have seen a rise in COVID activity, but only Tasmania and Victoria have seen a transparent increase or wave.
What types are circulating?
The spread of the XEC variant of COVID appears to be causing the recent increase in cases. Estimation Recommend XEC has increased from 10% to 60% of circulating SARS-CoV-2 over the past two months.
XEC is a recombinant variant, meaning it's a hybrid of two existing variants. In this case it's derived from two separate descendants of JN.1 (KP.3.3 and KS.1.1) that were released worldwide last Christmas.
Recent initials Laboratory evidence suggesting that XEC is healthier at evading our antibody response than the KP.3 variants that were most recently dominant.
XEC is healthier at spreading than other current variants, but it surely's not spreading as fast as last summer's JN.1.
So can XEC cause a wave? Yes, but it surely depends upon a variety of aspects other than competing with other variants. This includes the size of previous COVID waves and the resulting short-term boost in population immunity.
For example, the UK saw a big COVID wave this Northern Hemisphere autumn. Despite the increasing proportion of XEC infections, there are cases. The decline continued.
Will we get waves every 6 months any more?
This brings us back to how often we should always expect future waves of COVID.
Australia entered its Omicron period from 2022, and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 proceed to flow into today. In 2022 we had Four waves (Except for WA, which avoided the primary), we had two waves in 2023 and in 2024, not less than in jurisdictions resembling Victoria, two clear waves.
Epidemic theory predicts that the frequency of waves depends upon the inherent transmission of SARS-CoV-2, how quickly immunity wears off, in addition to seasonal changes in transmission.
Usually respiratory viruses Spread more easily In temperate climates in winter, perhaps because we spend more time indoors. This season in transmission typically results in a single winter peak for viruses resembling influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (or RSV).
However, we haven't seen this yet for COVID. Instead, we see dominant viral mutations arise every few months. These could cause sudden increases in transmission, enough to begin recent waves in summer and winter.
This suggests that two waves per 12 months are likely. However, since seasonal aspects increase the transmission of respiratory viruses in winter, we will generally expect winter waves to be higher than summer ones.
How about Christmas 2024?
Across Australia we will expect moderate levels of COVID circulation over the vacations. Activity is currently highest in Victoria and Tasmania But recent Victorian surveillance data suggests that is the case. The tide may peak..
In other jurisdictions, activity is low but growing slowly. Queensland, for instance, has seen this. Slow steady growth from the start of October.
Overall, though, there probably won't be as much COVID around Christmas as there was previously couple of years.
How do I protect myself and others?
Although cases are expected to be lower this Christmas than in recent times, you possibly can still protect yourself and others.
For example, in case you are visiting elderly relatives or individuals with weakened immune systems, watch out if you might have respiratory symptoms. Good quality masks and Using the RAT test Still an option. And no matter your symptoms, congregating in a well-ventilated room (or outdoors) will reduce your likelihood of infection and infecting others.
Updated COVID boosters matching the JN.1 variant needs to be available now, and you possibly can Check if you are eligible. Boosters protect against severe illness. For about six months But provide More limited protection Against infection and further transmission.